One marathon down. Between the current time and a Boston qualifier sits a specific, knowable gap — and the trajectory that makes it closable.
Current marathon PR
4:57:55
Rocket City · 2025 · debut
Between here and Boston, 1 hour, 27 minutes, 55 seconds.
3:30:00
BQ, 18–34 F
−1:27:55
To close
11:22 → 8:00
Avg pace shift
Section 01
The ladder.
4 steps to BQ
You Are Here
4:57:55
Rocket City '25 — first marathon, ran it home safe.
11:22 / miCurrent pace
Target 01
4:30:00
The realistic second-marathon goal — one training block.
−27:55From current
Target 02
4:00:00
Sub-4. A serious marathon number — sits on the shelf of real runners.
−57:55From current
Target 03
3:45:00
Competitive. Pacing 8:35/mi for 26.2.
−1:12:55From current
The Line
3:30:00
Boston qualifier for F18–34. Subtract 5:00 more for a safe cutoff buffer.
−1:27:55The gap
Section 02
What the half says.
Riegel prediction
Half PR
1:59:28
Boston or Bust · 2025
Predicts a marathon of
4:09:05
Riegel formula · trained marathon-specific
Your half-marathon fitness already runs a 4:09 marathon. The 48-minute gap between 4:09 and 4:57:55 isn't speed — it's marathon-specific endurance: long runs, fueling, and the last 10K.
Riegel formula · T₂ = T₁ × (D₂ / D₁)^1.06 · commonly used to predict race times across distances
Section 03
What has already dropped.
Year-over-year
Best 5K of the year
The 5K.
202228:38—
202325:00−3:38
202425:10+0:10
202524:39−0:31 ★
Total drop−3:59
Best 10K of the year
The 10K.
20191:00:37—
202258:44−1:53
202358:10−0:34
202457:03−1:07 ★
20261:01:52+4:49
Total drop (to PR)−3:34
Best half of the year
The Half.
20192:42:05—
20222:10:53−31:12
20232:07:38−3:15
20242:06:56−0:42
20251:59:28−7:28 ★
Total drop−42:37
Reading the half column: you dropped 7:28 in the past year alone. If that pace continues, next year's half lands around 1:52:00 — which, by Riegel, predicts a 3:53 marathon. Sub-4, one year out.
Section 04
Boston's standards.
Women · 2026 cycle
Age group
BQ standard
Safe cutoff*
Gap from 4:57:55
Pace needed
18–34 F
3:30:00
3:25:00
−1:27:55
8:00 / mi
35–39 F
3:35:00
3:30:00
−1:22:55
8:12 / mi
40–44 F
3:40:00
3:35:00
−1:17:55
8:23 / mi
45–49 F
3:50:00
3:45:00
−1:07:55
8:46 / mi
50–54 F
3:55:00
3:50:00
−1:02:55
8:58 / mi
55–59 F
4:05:00
4:00:00
−52:55
9:20 / mi
* In practice, BAA applies a rolling cutoff — recent years have required ~5 min faster than standard to get a bib. Aim for the safe cutoff column.
Section 05
The math.
How the gap closes
01
Claim the 4:09.
Your half already runs this marathon. A full marathon-specific training block — long runs to 20+ miles, goal-pace work, fueling practice — unlocks the fitness you already have.
≈ 6 months
02
Drop the half.
From 1:59 → 1:52 in the half. A 7-minute drop matching this past year's gain. Translates via Riegel to a 3:53 marathon.
≈ 12 months
03
Sub-four marathon.
Execute the 1:52 half fitness at the full distance. This is the doorway: sub-4 is where BQ becomes real math, not aspiration.
≈ 18 months
04
The qualifier.
Half to ~1:40. Marathon under 3:30 (or 3:25 safe). Two to three training cycles, one long project. The line doesn't move — you do.
≈ 3–5 years
"
The line doesn't move. You do.
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